Climate change and fluvial flood risk in the UK: more of the same?     

R. L. Wilby  K. J. Beven  N. S. Reynard 《水文研究》2008,22(14):2511-2523

The potential impact of climate change on fluvial flooding is receiving considerable scientific and political interest thanks to evidence from climate model projections and a widely held belief that flood risk may be increasing at European levels. This review compares published work on historical trends in UK rainfall and river flow records with high‐resolution regional climate change projections, and attempts to reconcile apparent differences between the two. Attention is focused on the techniques used for climate change detection and attribution, as well as the potential confounding effects of land‐use change. International and domestic efforts to build adaptive capacity rest on improved quantification of uncertainty in flood risk at very local, catchment and regional scales. This will involve further research to better integrate climate and land‐management interactions, to understand changes in the dependence between different flood generating mechanisms, and to improve the characterization and communication of uncertainty at all stages of analysis. Resources are also needed to ensure that latest, but still uncertain, science is presented in an appropriate form to underpin policy development and is translated into sensible guidance for practitioners. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The soil hydrologic response to forest regrowth: a case study from southwestern Amazonia     

Sarah Godsey  Helmut Elsenbeer 《水文研究》2002,16(7):1519-1522

As a large and dynamic land‐use category, tropical secondary forests may affect climate, soils, and hydrology in a manner different from primary forests or agricultural areas. We investigated the saturated hydraulic conductivity K_sat of a Kandiudult under different land uses in Rondonia, Brazil. We measured K_sat at four depths (12·5, 20, 30 and 50 cm) under (a) primary forest, (b) a former banana–cacao plantation (SF1), and (c) an abandoned pasture (SF2). At 12·5 cm, all three land uses differ significantly (α = 0·1), but not at the 20 and 30 cm depths. At 50 cm, K_sat was significantly greater in the former pasture than in other land uses. Lateral subsurface flow is expected during intense rainfall (about 30 times per year) at 30 cm depth in SF1 and at 50 cm depth in the forest, whereas the relatively low permeability at shallow 12·5 cm in the SF2 may result not only in lateral subsurface flow, but also saturation overland flow. For modelling purposes, recovering systems seem to have K_sat values distinct from primary forest at shallow depths, whereas at deeper layers (>20 cm) they may be considered similar to forests. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rehabilitation and Sustainable Use Pattern of Rocky-desertified Land in Southwest China''s Poverty-stricken Karst Mountainous Areas——A Case Study in Benggu Township, Xichou County, Yunnan, China     

YANG Zisheng  LIU Yansui  BAO Guangjing  LI Zhiguo  HE Yimei 《山地科学学报》2006,(3)

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Multi-agent Blind Model and Its Application to Regional Eco-environmental Quality Assessment   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

LI Ruzhong 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2006,16(3):249-254

1 Introduction Eco-environmental quality assessment is an activity that is affected by man-made factors. As other environmental systems, regional eco-environment is also a complicated and uncertain system (Wu et al., 2005). Owing to these reasons, people may produce a style of subjective un- certainty in mind in evaluating such system (Liu et al. 1999a; Wu et al., 2004). According to unascertained mathematics (Liu et al., 1997; Liu et al., 1999b), we know that this kind of subjective uncerta…  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia     

Jai Vaze  Paul Barnett  Geoffrey Beale  Warrick Dawes  Ray Evans  Narendra Kumar Tuteja  Brian Murphy  Guy Geeves  Michelle Miller 《水文研究》2004,18(9):1613-1637

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

地理信息系统在国土资源调查中的应用     

左景勋 《河南国土资源》2001,(4)

目前地理信息系统的制图功能广泛应用于国土资源大调查中 ,作者结合自己的工作体会 ,介绍一下微机辅助制图的工作方法和步骤 :图层设置、矢量化、误差校正、图幅拼接、图幅整饰和图形输出  相似文献   

Study on methods of land use dynamic monitoring at county level     

Lin-yi Li  Fang Huang  Zhao-li Liu  En-pu Wan 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2001,11(2):181-185

Remote sensing technique has played an important role in land use dynamic monitoring, but as for the land use dynamic monitoring at county level, traditional remote sensing methods such as satellite imagery visual interpretation and computer classification can not meet its demand for accuracy. The result of 1: 10 000 land use investigation map has high accuracy, but this method can not be used to dynamically monitor the land use because of its big expenses, long period and difficulty in updating data. In this paper, the characteristics of physiognomy, climate and the status of land use in Dehui County are taken into consideration and a set of method, which takes use of 3S techniques and applies to Northeast China Plain, is come up with. When the land use type of a land parcel changed as a whole, the date updating can be make by changing its land type ID in the attribute table in a GIS. When the land use type of an irregular area changed, GPS receivers are used to position its border. This set of method is characteristic of high accuracy and low expenses. It gets the information of land use change timely and can be used to dynamically monitor the land use. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the key project of the National Ninth Five-year Plan (96-B02-01-07). Biography: LI Lin-yi (1968 —), female, a native of Jilin, Ph. D. candidate of Changchun Institute of Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her research interest includes land use change monitoring and crop yield estimation using “3S” techniques.  相似文献   

嵩县公峪金矿区成矿后断裂活动及深部找矿     

韩长寿 《河南国土资源》2001,(4)

枯桩杈断裂南北两侧的构造蚀变岩型金矿 ,在矿体规模、矿化强度、矿物组合等 ,因受后期断裂破坏而存在明显不同。初步研究认为 ,这是矿床沿垂向变化特征的反映 ,是枯桩杈断裂在成矿后的活动造成的。该断裂以南矿体剥蚀程度较浅 ,向深部矿化增强的趋势明显 ,深部找矿有很大潜力  相似文献   

土地利用分类及其影响因素研究   总被引：20，自引：0，他引：20  

秦明周 《地域研究与开发》1997,16(1):13-16

土地利用分类是研究土地利用的最基础工作，它直接影响着土地利用的科研与实践，本文在全面研究土地利用分类理论与方法的基础上，比较且说明了当前国内外土地利用分类的优劣。并提出多层统一标准的系统分类设想。  相似文献   

耕地保护与土地资源可持续利用研究--以广东省徐闻县为例     

陈士银 《广东海洋大学学报》2001,21(3):54-59

从可持续发展的角度,分析了广东省徐闻县土地资源利用的现状和耕地锐减的原因,并有针对性的提出了通过建立土地资源可持续利用机制和采用行政、经济、法律及技术等措施来保护耕地,实现土地资源的可持续利用.  相似文献